The Fed Held Rates — But the Housing Market Didn’t Wait

June 22, 2026 | Kevin Brierton Team | ,

FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 22, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito.” — Dalai Lama, Head of Tibetan Buddhism

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

New listings remained above last year’s pace for the second consecutive week while homes sold at the same pace as a year ago for the third straight week. Buyer demand continues to keep pace with growing inventory despite affordability challenges.

Applications for new-home purchase mortgages increased 3.8% from a year ago in May, a sign that demand for newly built homes continues to improve despite elevated borrowing costs.

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but adopted a more inflation-focused tone, signaling that interest rates could remain elevated longer as policymakers monitor price pressures and labor market strength.

REVIEW OF LASTWEEK

FED HOLDS COURSE…Markets traded cautiously last week as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and emphasized its commitment to bringing inflation back under control.

Bond yields moved higher after policymakers removed their projected 2026 rate cut and emphasized persistent inflation risks. Markets adjusted expectations toward a longer period of elevated interest rates.

Even with higher-for-longer rate expectations, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending remains healthy, the labor market is stable, and housing demand continues to absorb available inventory.

The week ended with the Dow up 0.7%, to 51,565, the S&P 500 up 0.6%, to 6,118, and the Nasdaq up 0.4%, to 15,183.

Bond markets experienced modest pressure as investors priced in a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates remain elevated, reinforcing affordability challenges while encouraging many buyers to shop carefully and sellers to price competitively.

DID YOU KNOW…The housing market has now maintained more than one million active listings for nearly two months, offering buyers the widest selection of homes seen in several years.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

HOME SALES, PCE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE…Markets will focus on existing-home sales, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure (PCE), and consumer confidence data for additional clues on economic momentum. Inflation readings will remain especially important as investors evaluate how long interest rates may stay elevated. Housing fundamentals remain relatively steady, but affordability will continue to be the biggest factor influencing buyer activity as summer progresses.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.The Federal Reserve continues to emphasize patience, signaling that interest rates are likely to remain steady until inflation shows more meaningful improvement. Note: In the lower chart, the 36.3% probability of change means there’s a 63.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUSJun 293.50%-3.75%
Sep 163.75%-4.00%Oct 283.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Jun 29th 36.3%

Sep 16th 51.4%

Oct 28th 44.3%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Be the calmest voice in the conversation. When clients feel uncertain, clear explanations and steady guidance can build more trust than having every answer immediately.

Ready to Make Your Move? Let’s Talk Strategy.

The Fed is holding rates steady — but that doesn’t mean you should hold still.

Whether you’re thinking about buying your first home, moving up, or exploring whether a refinance makes sense given where rates are heading, now is a good time to get clear on your numbers and your options.

I work with buyers and homeowners across Arizona to cut through the noise and build a mortgage plan that actually fits your life — not just today’s rate environment.

Schedule a Mortgage Strategy Call with me and let’s cover:

  • Where rates are and what the Fed’s next moves could mean for you
  • Your current buying power and how to position yourself in today’s market
  • Whether a refinance makes sense now or if patience is the smarter play

No pressure. No pitch. Just a straight conversation about your situation and what makes sense.

📅 [Schedule Your Mortgage Strategy Call]

Kevin Brierton
Branch Manager 
Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist
NMLS# 599873

6991 East Camelback Rd., Ste D-300 
Scottsdale, AZ 85251