Mortgage Rates Hold — But Here’s What’s Really Moving the Market

FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 29, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The secret to longevity is ice cream.”—Paul Marcus, American centenarian

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

New listings outpaced last year’s levels for the third consecutive week, while homes sold at the same pace as a year ago for the fourth straight week. The data suggests sellers are becoming more comfortable entering the market as summer continues.

The national median payment applied for by purchase borrowers rose to $2,198 in May, highlighting the ongoing affordability challenges facing homebuyers despite improving inventory conditions.

Lower oil prices and easing energy pressures are helping reduce inflation concerns and providing additional support for consumer spending. Strong household demand and improving labor conditions continue to reinforce broader economic resilience.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

OIL OFFERS RELIEF…Markets navigated another week of mixed performance as falling energy prices helped offset concerns about inflation and elevated interest rates.

Bond yields stabilized as investors weighed improving inflation prospects against the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping policy restrictive until price pressures show clearer signs of easing.

Markets spent much of last week reacting to shifting energy prices and incoming economic data, with investors closely watching how lower oil costs might influence inflation trends and future Fed decisions. Housing data also showed signs of stabilization, as steady buyer demand continued to absorb rising inventory levels.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.1%, to 51,876, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, to 7,354, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%, to 25,298.

Mortgage rates held near 6.5% for the sixth consecutive week, providing some stability for buyers even as affordability challenges remain a key factor in purchasing decisions.

DID YOU KNOW…More than 25 million Americans under age 35 lived with their parents in 2025—the highest level ever recorded—highlighting how affordability pressures continue reshaping housing choices.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

JOBS DATA, MANUFACTURING, HOLIDAY SPENDING…Markets will focus on upcoming employment reports and manufacturing data for clues about economic momentum heading into the second half of the year. Investors will also watch consumer spending trends as households benefit from lower energy prices. Housing supply continues to improve, but affordability remains the defining challenge for buyers. Mortgage rates and labor-market strength will remain key drivers of activity throughout the summer.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The Federal Reserve is signaling that it is not ready to cut rates anytime soon and will keep borrowing costs elevated until there is clearer and sustained progress on inflation. Note: In the lower chart, the 29.4% probability of change means there’s a 70.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Jun 29th 3.50%-3.75%

Sep 16th 3.75%-4.00%

Oct 28th 3.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Jun 29th 29.4%

Sep 16th 48.4%

Oct 28th 46.3%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Stay organized, commit to following a structured calendar, and avoid procrastination. Time management is the foundation for success in any business.

Ready to Make Your Move? Let’s Talk Strategy.

Markets are shifting — inventory is up, rates are holding, and the Fed is playing it cautious. That combination creates real opportunity for buyers and homeowners who are prepared and paying attention.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, this might be the week to have a real conversation about what your options actually look like.

I’m Kevin Brierton — Branch Manager, SVP of Mortgage Lending, and Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (NMLS #599873). My job is to cut through the noise and help you understand exactly where you stand — whether you’re buying, planning to buy, or wondering if a refinance makes sense in today’s environment.

Schedule a Mortgage Strategy Call and let’s review your buying power, talk through current market conditions, and map out your next move — on your timeline, with no pressure.

Schedule Your Mortgage Strategy Call

Kevin Brierton | Branch Manager, SVP of Mortgage Lending | NMLS #599873 | Luminate Bank NMLS #1281698 | Your No Excuse Lender