Jobs Keep Rates Higher but Buyers Just Got More Leverage — Here’s What’s Behind It

Inside Lending FOR THE WEEK OF September 8, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.” — Albert Einstein, Theoretical physicist

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Housing inventory reached 1.15 million homes, the highest level since 2019 and up 4.7% from last year. More choices and softer prices continue to give buyers negotiating room.

New listings reached their highest level in four years in August, giving buyers more options heading into fall as sellers continue to test the market despite elevated mortgage rates.

Residential construction spending fell 7.3% from a year ago in July. Less construction could slow future inventory growth, making today’s increase in available homes especially important for buyers.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

JOBS SURPRISE HIGHER…The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far more than expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%. That’s good news for the economy, but it reduced hopes that borrowing costs could ease soon.

Stocks pulled back Friday as the stronger jobs report increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates this month. For housing, stronger employment is encouraging, but it also makes lower mortgage rates harder to achieve.

Housing offered buyers some advantages. Inventory increased, asking prices softened, and homes continued to sell slightly faster than a year ago, creating more opportunity for buyers willing to stay active.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.3%, to 53,414; the S&P 500 up 0.1%, to 7,719; and the Nasdaq up 0.4%, to 26,507.

Treasury yields rose after the jobs report, including the 10-year yield that closely influences mortgage rates. That puts additional pressure on hopes for lower borrowing costs in the near term.

DID YOU KNOW…Mortgage rates reached a new 2026 high last week, with the average 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.71%. Even so, purchase demand has remained relatively steady as buyers adjust to today’s market.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

INFLATION TAKES OVER…After last week’s strong jobs report, inflation becomes the big story this week. New wholesale inflation numbers arrive Thursday, followed by the more important consumer inflation report Friday. Cooler inflation could relieve some pressure on mortgage rates, while another hot reading could push borrowing costs higher. With the Fed meeting next week, these reports could have an outsized impact on where rates go next.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs report increased the possibility of a September rate hike. Note: In the lower chart, the 58.4% probability of change means there’s a 41.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Watch Source

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Sep 16 3.75%-4.00%

Oct 28 3.75%-4.00%

Dec 9 3.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Sep 16 58.4%

Oct 28 53.9%

Dec 9 42.0%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

More choices don’t always make buying easier. When buyers have more inventory to sort through, help them narrow the field by identifying the two or three things that matter most. Being the person who simplifies the decision can be just as valuable as finding the property.

Not sure what this week’s numbers mean for your plans?

Markets like this one reward people who move with a plan, not a guess. Inventory’s up, rates are up, and the Fed’s next move is still up in the air — that’s exactly the kind of environment where a quick conversation can save you real money and stress.

Let’s get on a call and look at where you actually stand — your buying power, your refinance options, and what today’s market really means for your next move. No pressure, no sales pitch, just a straight conversation so you can decide your next step with confidence.

👉 Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call today.

-Kevin