Housing Inventory Just Hit a Level We Haven’t Seen Since 2019

FOR THE WEEK OF JULY 27, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.”—Vidal Sassoon,  British hairstylist, entrepreneur, and philanthropist

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Active inventory remained above 1.1 million homes for the fifth consecutive week, the longest stretch since November 2019. New listings rose 1.6% annually, while homes sold at last year’s pace.

The number of down payment assistance programs reached 2,746 during the second quarter, giving prospective buyers more options as affordability remains a hurdle.

Oil approached $100 as renewed geopolitical tensions lifted inflation concerns and Treasury yields. Meanwhile, investors shifted their attention from AI spending toward whether that investment can produce stronger revenue and profits.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

TECH SLIDES AGAIN…Stocks finished lower as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured valuations. Technology shares led the decline as investors questioned whether heavy AI spending will translate into sufficient revenue, margins and cash flow.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as higher oil prices renewed inflation concerns. The move increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider raising rates later this year if energy pressures persist.

The labor market remained firm, with initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level since 1969. New-home sales received support from builder incentives, while broader housing activity continued reflecting affordability constraints.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.4% to 51,947, the S&P 500 down 0.6% to 7,412, and the Nasdaq down 2.1% to 24,976.

Higher Treasury yields placed renewed pressure on mortgage rates. More inventory and builder incentives may help buyers, but financing costs remain a key obstacle heading into August.

DID YOU KNOW…Early-stage mortgage delinquencies continue to decline, with new FHA defaults posting their largest annual drop in more than four years.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

FED TAKES CENTERSTAGE…The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate decision will lead a busy week for markets. Investors will also watch earnings from several major technology companies for evidence that AI spending is producing stronger returns. Jobless claims and additional economic reports will help determine whether steady employment and rising energy costs are changing the outlook for interest rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged Wednesday. Markets will focus on policymakers’ outlook for inflation, energy prices, and the path of future rate decisions. Note: In the lower chart, the 33.7% probability of change means there’s an 66.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS

Jul 29th 3.50%-3.75%

Sep 16th 3.75%-4.00%

Oct 28th 3.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Jul 29th 33.7%

Sep 16th 56.1%

Oct 28th 44.4%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Not every follow-up needs a sales pitch. Share one useful insight, ask one thoughtful question and keep the conversation moving. Consistent value builds trust long before a client is ready to act.

Here’s where I always tell clients to slow down for a second: inventory just hit its longest stretch above 1.1 million homes since 2019, down payment assistance programs are at an all-time high, and the Fed is about to make a call that could shape where rates head into the fall. That’s a lot of moving pieces — and it’s exactly why “wait and see” isn’t really a strategy.

Whether you’re weighing a purchase now that there’s more to choose from, wondering if a refinance makes sense once the Fed signals its next move, or just trying to figure out how far your buying power actually stretches in this market, let’s talk it through. No pressure, no scripts — just a real conversation about where you stand and what your best next move looks like.

Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call today and let’s map it out together.

Kevin Brierton | Branch Manager & SVP of Mortgage Lending | Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist | NMLS #599873 | Luminate Bank | NMLS #1281698 | 6991 East Camelback Rd., Ste D-300, Scottsdale, AZ 85251