FED holds rates – Buyers Just Got More Leverage — Inventory Rises, Payments Ease

FOR THE WEEK OF August 3, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The elevator to success is out of order. You’ll have to use the stairs… one step at a time.”—Joe Girard, American salesman, motivational speaker, and author

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Homes sold one day faster than a year ago for the second time in four weeks, while active inventory posted its largest annual gain since April, giving buyers more choices without slowing market activity.

Mortgage affordability improved slightly in June as the median monthly payment for purchase applicants declined, offering modest relief even with mortgage rates remaining elevated.

Fitch reported homeowners continue to benefit from substantial equity and low-rate mortgages, helping keep overall mortgage performance stable despite a slower housing market.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

FED HOLDS STEADY…Stocks moved higher last week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting. Investors were also encouraged by another strong week of corporate earnings, particularly from large technology companies.

Treasury yields climbed after the Fed signaled inflation remains its primary focus, while markets continued weighing the possibility of another rate increase later this year. Mortgage rates held near recent highs as bond markets adjusted to the Fed’s outlook.

Economic growth remained positive as second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annual pace, while June inflation eased modestly. Consumer spending and employment continue supporting the broader economy.

The week ended with the Dow up 1.0%, to 52,485, the S&P 500 up 1.0%, to 7,490, and the Nasdaq up 1.6%, to 25,374.

Bond markets remained volatile following the Fed meeting, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Investors continue watching inflation and labor market data for clues on when policy could eventually shift.

DID YOU KNOW…Nearly 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter earnings have exceeded analyst expectations, with earnings growth broadening beyond the technology sector.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

SERVICES, JOBS, HOUSING…Markets will watch this week’s reports on the job market, consumer spending, and housing activity for clues about the economy’s direction. Investors will also be looking for signs that inflation continues to ease, which could help keep mortgage rates from moving higher. With inventory continuing to improve, stable rates could encourage more buyers and sellers to move forward before the summer season winds down.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Rates remained unchanged last week as policymakers emphasized they will continue monitoring inflation and economic data before making any policy changes. Note: In the lower chart, the 62.7% probability of change means there’s an 37.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Sep 16th 3.75%-4.00%

Oct 28th 3.75%-4.00%

Dec 9th 3.75%-4.00%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Sep 16th 62.7%

Oct 28th 55.4%

Dec 9th 42.8%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

People rarely remember every number you share, but they remember how responsive you were. In a slower market, speed, consistency, and follow-up can become your biggest competitive advantage.

Every week I break this data down for one reason: so you’re never guessing when it comes to your biggest financial decision. This week’s numbers tell a clear story — more inventory, easing payments, and a Fed that’s still watching closely. That combination doesn’t come around often, and what it means for your situation depends on your specific numbers.

If you’re wondering how this shifts your buying power, whether now’s the right window to move, or if a refinance makes sense given where rates are headed, let’s talk it through. No pressure, no sales pitch — just a clear-eyed look at your options.

Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call today and let’s map out your next move.

Kevinbrierton.com/Call

Kevin Brierton

Branch Manager | SVP of Mortgage Lending | Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist NMLS #599873