Fed Holds Firm as Sellers Stay Put
Inside Lending FOR THE WEEK OF November 2, 2026
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Great things are done by a series of small things brought together” — Vincent van Gogh, Dutch painter
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
New listings declined 1.5% year over year as sellers grew more hesitant to enter the market. With fewer fresh listings, Realtors can help motivated sellers stand out through competitive pricing.
Record home equity remains tied up as homeowners hesitate to give up their existing mortgage rates. This reluctance could continue limiting fresh listings, making realistic pricing and seller motivation increasingly important.
Single-family home completions are down nearly 11% in 2026. Slower construction could limit future housing choices, even as builders offer incentives to attract today’s buyers.
Sources: Realtor.com, MBA Newslink, Scotsman Guide
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
FED HOLDS FIRM…The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. Policymakers acknowledged continued economic strength but warned inflation remains too high. For housing, that means meaningful borrowing-cost relief may take longer.
Inflation remained stubborn in September, with the Fed’s preferred measure rising 3.6% annually. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.1%, reinforcing concerns that borrowing costs could stay elevated.
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, beating expectations. Strong consumer spending and business investment show the economy remains resilient, giving the Fed room to keep fighting inflation.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.9%, to 51,770; the S&P 500 down 0.6%, to 7,580; and the Nasdaq down 2.0%, to 25,437.
For Realtors, the challenge remains affordability rather than a collapsing economy. Buyers may have the income and confidence to purchase, but monthly payments continue determining which homes fit their budgets.
DID YOU KNOW…Record home equity is keeping some homeowners from moving. Many would need to trade an existing low-rate mortgage for a more expensive one, leaving potential listings off the market
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
ECONOMIC SIGNALS AHEAD…Following last week’s Fed decision, attention turns to fresh economic reports and what they reveal about inflation, hiring and consumer demand. Strong readings could reinforce expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated, while signs of cooling may help ease pressure on Treasury yields. For Realtors, the important question is whether financing conditions can stabilize enough to bring more buyers and sellers together before year-end.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The Fed held rates steady on October 28 at 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation still above its 2% target and economic growth remaining strong, additional rate increases remain possible. Note: In the lower chart, the 76.6% probability of change means there’s a 23.4% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Watch Source
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Dec 9th 4.00%-4.25%
Jan 27th 4.00%-4.25%
Mar 17th 4.25%-4.50%
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Dec 9th 76.6%
Jan 27th 60.7%
Mar 17th 44.2%
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
Refresh listings before they go stale. If a home isn’t attracting showings, review the photos, description and pricing with your seller. Small improvements can renew interest before another price reduction becomes necessary.
Ready to plan your next move?
Rates, inventory, and the Fed are all moving at once, and the headlines won’t tell you what that means for your payment. That’s what a Mortgage Strategy Call is for.
We’ll review where the market stands, what your buying power looks like today, and whether a refinance makes sense. No pressure, just a clear plan.
👉 Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call
📞 480-553-8770 | ✉️ [email protected]
Kevin Brierton, Branch Manager, SVP | NMLS #599873
