Affordability Improves, Rates at 11-Month Low
Inside Lending – Week of September 8, 2025
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“I installed a skylight in my apartment… the people who live above me are furious!”—Steven Wright, American stand-up comedian, actor, writer, and film producer
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
The Mortgage Bankers Association notes, “Affordability conditions have now improved for two consecutive months,” as the national median monthly payment on purchase loan applications dropped below where it was a year ago.
Attom Data said mortgage activity in April, May, and June showed “a typical spring bounce.” Total activity increased in 201 of 212 metros, with purchase mortgage activity improving in 97% of the metros analyzed.
The Census Bureau reported builders got busier in July. Spending on residential construction came in a tick above the revised June numbers, including a welcome gain in spending on single-family homes.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
MIXED… Stocks ended mixed, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gaining and the Dow lagging slightly, as traders digested mixed economic reports, led by Friday’s softer-than expected August jobs data.
That report featured a meager 22,000 new nonfarm payrolls added for the month, with a growing labor force that pushed unemployment up a tick to 4.3%, and higher wages—all evidence of a slowing (but still growing) economy.
Yet weak payrolls greatly increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week, ISM Services showed that huge sector of the economy still expanding, and Q2 productivity grew with only a modest gain in labor costs—all good things!
The week ended with the Dow down 0.3%, to 45,401; the S&P 500 UP 0.3%, to 6,482; and the Nasdaq UP 1.1%, to 21,700.
The disappointing jobs report helped bonds, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% UP 0.07, to 100.25. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to what Mortgage News Daily called an 11-month low. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW… National Association of Home Builders data revealed 2 out of 3 builders offered sales incentives in August—the most so far this year and the highest percentage in 5 years—with 40% doing price cuts.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, INFLATION, CONSUMER SENTIMENT… We’ll keep an eye on the MBA Mortgage Applications Index to see if activity keeps trending upward year-over-year. Inflation is expected to remain moderate in August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), while the August Producer Price Index (PPI) should reveal wholesale prices increasing at a slower pace than they did in July. Economists forecast the preliminary read on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September will rebound from August.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The August jobs report was all it took for the futures market to be certain of a rate cut next week, with a high probability of more cuts at the following two meets. Note: In the lower chart, the 100.0% probability of change means there’s a 0.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
Successful people are persistent—they never give up. If something doesn’t work, they try something different. If a prospect says “No,” they give them a reason to say “Yes.” But they don’t pursue the impossible. If prospects aren’t ready to buy, or if their demands are unreasonable, they move on.
Rates are down. Incentives are up. Buyers have more leverage. If you’re considering buying or refinancing, let’s build your mortgage strategy around today’s opportunities.
📲 Call or Text: 480-553-8770 📩 kevin@kevinbrierton.com 🔗 Start today at KevinBrierton.com/Apply
#YourNoExcuseLender | Kevin Brierton Branch Manager #NMLS599873 | #KevinBriertonLender |
Kevin Brierton Team a division of Luminate Bank NMLS 1281698
