Rates Ease, Sellers Pull Back: What It Means for Your Next Move

Inside lending FOR THE WEEK OF November 9, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day in and day out.” — Robert Collier, American author

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

New listings dropped 5.2% year over year, a sharper decline than the previous week’s 1.5%. Seller hesitation is growing, making realistic pricing and strong listing preparation increasingly important.

Mortgage originations increased 12.8% year over year in the second quarter, reaching 1.5 million loans. TransUnion’s findings highlight continued lending activity despite today’s challenging financing environment.

Nearly half of home sellers say selling costs exceeded their expectations. Repairs, concessions and closing expenses are catching sellers off guard, making early conversations about net proceeds especially valuable.

Sources: Realtor.com, MBA Newslink, Scotsman Guide

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

MARKETS CHANGE DIRECTION…Stocks initially rallied following the midterm elections as political uncertainty eased. That optimism faded when renewed concerns about artificial intelligence spending and profitability triggered a technology-led sell-off.

Treasury yields declined as investors moved toward bonds. Expectations of slower government spending and reduced corporate borrowing also helped support bonds, potentially easing pressure on longer-term financing costs.

Oil prices fell sharply as investors considered the possibility of diplomatic progress in the Iran conflict. Sustained declines could help ease inflation pressures, although the outlook remains uncertain.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.9%, to 51,286; the S&P 500 down 2.7%, to 7,377; and the Nasdaq down 3.4%, to 24,579.

Mortgage rates declined for a third consecutive week, with Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average reaching 7.18%. The improvement offers some relief, although financing costs continue to limit purchasing power.

DID YOU KNOW…First-time homebuyers are increasingly purchasing homes with cash, according to the National Association of Realtors. It’s a reminder that not every first-time buyer follows the traditional mortgage-financing path.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

INFLATION TAKES CENTER STAGE…Tuesday brings October’s Consumer Price Index, a closely watched measure of inflation. Friday follows with the Producer Price Index, tracking price pressures faced by businesses. Both reports could influence Treasury yields and expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Wednesday’s Veterans Day holiday may also affect trading activity in the bond market. Following last week’s stronger-than-expected employment report, persistent inflation could reinforce expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated. Realtors should watch how mortgage pricing responds before discussing financing expectations with clients.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. December’s Fed decision is coming into sharper focus. October’s stronger-than-expected hiring report gives policymakers more reason to remain cautious about inflation. Note: In the lower chart, the 76.3% probability of change means there’s a 23.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Watch Source

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Dec 9th 4.00%-4.25%

Jan 27th 4.00%-4.25%

Mar 17th 4.25%-4.50%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Dec 9th 76.6%

Jan 27th 65.4%

Mar 17th 47.2%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Show sellers the numbers before the offers arrive. Prepare a simple estimated net proceeds sheet that includes commissions, closing expenses, potential repairs and concessions. Understanding the bottom line early helps sellers evaluate offers more confidently.

Let’s Plan Your Next Move

Rates are easing, inventory is tightening, and inflation data could shake things up again this week. The headlines move fast, but your plan shouldn’t depend on them.

Let’s get on a quick Mortgage Strategy Call. We’ll look at where the market stands, what your buying power looks like today, and whether a purchase or refinance strategy makes sense for you right now. No pressure and no jargon, just a clear picture so you can decide what’s next.

👉 Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call: KevinBrierton.com/call 📞 480-553-8770 | ✉️ [email protected]

Kevin Brierton, Branch Manager, SVP, Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist, NMLS #599873