More Homes, Higher Rates: What This Week’s Numbers Mean For You
Inside Lending FOR THE WEEK OF September 28, 2026
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.” — Yogi Berra, American baseball player and manager
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Active inventory climbed 5.8% from last year and topped 1.17 million homes, remaining near its highest level since 2019. More choices and softer asking prices continue to give fall buyers additional negotiating room.
Rising mortgage rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on application activity. With borrowing costs now above 7%, affordability is again becoming a bigger obstacle for buyers who had remained active through the summer.
New-home sales rebounded in August despite higher mortgage rates. Builders are still finding buyers in today’s tougher financing environment, although weaker builder confidence suggests the industry remains cautious about demand heading into fall.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
YIELDS PUSH HIGHER…Treasury yields surged as inflation and stronger economic growth pressured bond markets. The 10-year Treasury briefly hit 5.20%, adding pressure to mortgage rates.
Oil and inflation remained a problem, while stronger economic activity also pushed yields higher. For housing, that makes it harder for mortgage rates to move meaningfully lower even as buyers gain leverage on home prices.
Housing still showed some resilience. Homes sold slightly faster than a year ago even with mortgage rates approaching 7%, while new listings remained roughly even with last year. That suggests the buyers and sellers still participating are finding ways to make transactions work.
The week ended with the Dow up 0.3%, to 51,829; the S&P 500 up 1.2%, to 7,743; and the Nasdaq up 2.1%, to 27,069.
More homes are sitting on the market, giving buyers additional choices heading into fall. With inventory above 1.17 million and asking prices slightly below last year, buyers have more room to be selective and negotiate.
DID YOU KNOW…The typical home sold one day faster than a year ago despite today’s substantially higher mortgage-rate environment. That’s a small but encouraging sign that serious buyers haven’t disappeared—they’re simply becoming more selective.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
JOBS MOVE RATES…This week’s employment data could have a direct impact on where mortgage rates go next. With Treasury yields already elevated and the Fed focused on inflation, signs of a still-strong labor market could reinforce expectations for additional rate increases and keep borrowing costs under pressure. A cooler jobs picture could provide some relief. For Realtors, the key question is whether rates can stabilize enough to let improving inventory, softer prices and greater negotiating room translate into more fall transactions. The backdrop entering the week is especially important because the 10-year Treasury reached 5.20% last week and the Fed has already signaled the possibility of additional tightening.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The Fed raised rates earlier this month and has signaled that another increase remains possible this year. Note: In the lower chart, the 68.1% probability of change means there’s a 31.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Watch Source
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Oct 28th 4.00%-4.25%
Dec 9th 4.25%-4.50%
Jan 27th 4.25%-4.50%
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Oct 28th 68.1%
Dec 9th 55.3%
Jan 27th 46.5%
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
Don’t let a higher rate end the conversation. When a buyer’s payment no longer works, help identify what could change the equation—a price adjustment, seller concession, different property or financing structure. Giving clients a path forward is more useful than simply telling them to wait.
Not Sure What This Means for Your Next Move? Let’s Find Out.
Rates above 7%, inventory climbing, and a jobs report that could shake things up this week — it’s a lot to track on your own, and honestly, you shouldn’t have to.
If you’re weighing a purchase, wondering whether now’s the time to refinance, or just want a clear read on your buying power in today’s market, let’s get on a call. No pressure, no sales pitch — just a straightforward look at where you stand and what your options actually are.
Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call today, and let’s map out your next move together.
Schedule Your Mortgage Strategy Call – DM me – “Let’s Talk”
-Kevin Brierton – Branch manager, certified mortgage planning specialist NMLS 599873
