📉 Homebuilder Confidence Rises as Affordability Improves

Inside Lending for the week of OCTOBER 20, 2025

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Sometimes you lie in bed at night and you don’t have a single thing to worry about. That always worries me!”—Charlie Brown, Peanuts character created by Charles M. Schultz

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Housing Starts and Building Permits were off in September, as builders focused on completions. Single-family completions came in nearly 7% higher than July, and almost 6% ahead of a year ago.

And the majority of builders are optimistic. This month’s National Association of Home Builders sentiment index showed future sales expectations jumped nine points to 54, indicating the majority of builders are upbeat.

Rate locks on purchase mortgages outperformed in September, up 6% for the month and 9% year-over-year, as the ICE Mortgage Monitor indicated homebuyer affordability hit its best level in almost three years.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

SOLID REBOUND… After the prior week’s selloff, the stock market staged a convincing comeback, to finish on Friday with all three major indexes delivering solid gains for the week.

With the government shutdown delaying key economic data, traders focused on Q3 corporate earnings reports in which 85% of the companies reporting thus far have posted positive earnings surprises.

Even China trade concerns were allayed with President Trump’s Truth Social post, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine,” and the news he and President Xi had a lengthy phone conversation and will soon meet.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.6%, to 46,191; the S&P 500 UP 1.7%, to 6,664; and the Nasdaq UP 2.1%, to 22,680.

Bonds also gained nicely overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% UP 96 basis points, to 100.04.The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped again, as Freddie Mac’s weekly survey noted “a more favorable environment for those looking to buy a home.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… The latest data reveals mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago. That adds up to a savings of almost $3,400 a year.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, INFLATION… The forecasts call for New Home Sales to be off a bit in September, but Existing Home Sales to tick higher. We’ll get the September inflation read delayed by the government shutdown, which is expected to show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) holding steady.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Fed watchers are now forecasting a quarter percent rate cut at each of the next three FOMC meetings. Note: In the lower chart, the 99.0% probability of change means there’s only a 1.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.00%-4.25%.

💡 No Excuse Pro Tip (Business Tip of the Week)

If you want new results, take new action. You already know what needs to change — the key is courage, not clarity. Step past fear, execute boldly, and momentum will follow.

With affordability improving and builder confidence on the rise, it’s a great time to explore your options. A Mortgage Strategy Call can help you identify opportunities to buy, refinance, or plan ahead before rates shift again. Let’s make your next move a smart one.

📲 Call or Text: 480-553-8770 📩 kevin@kevinbrierton.com 🔗 Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call

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