Volatility, Oil Prices, and the Fed: Navigating the March 2026 Market
Inside Lending For the week of March 16, 2026
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The secret to longevity is ice cream.”—Paul Marcus, American centenarian
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Buyer-friendly conditions continue to develop as home prices trend lower and inventory gradually improves. While economic uncertainty persists, affordability dynamics are slowly becoming more supportive heading into the spring shopping season.
Policy attention on housing affordability is also increasing. Industry leaders are encouraging regulatory reform, expanded lending participation, and construction incentives aimed at improving credit access and long-term housing supply.
Homes are taking longer to sell compared to last year, signaling a shift toward more balanced market conditions. Mortgage rate stability near recent ranges is expected to help sustain buyer engagement as seasonal demand builds.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
OIL JOLTS MARKETS… Stocks moved lower for the week as rising geopolitical tensions and a spike in oil prices unsettled investors. Concerns about renewed inflation pressure and shifting Federal Reserve expectations drove a more cautious tone across financial markets.
Volatility increased as Treasury yields edged higher and markets reassessed the timing of potential rate cuts. Elevated energy costs and mixed economic signals kept investors sensitive to incoming data and global developments.
Despite the turbulence, underlying economic fundamentals remain constructive. Labor market conditions are stable, earnings growth expectations remain positive, and improving housing supply trends continue to support a gradually strengthening spring purchase environment.
The week ended with the Dow down 2.0%, to 46,558; the S&P 500 down 1.6%, to 6,632; and the Nasdaq down 1.3%, to 22,105.
Bond markets experienced modest selling pressure as Treasury yields edged higher amid rising oil prices and inflation expectations. Mortgage rates moved slightly upward but stayed within recent ranges as investors balanced global risks with steady domestic economic conditions.
DID YOU KNOW…Active housing inventory is now higher than last year, giving buyers more negotiating power and creating stronger opportunities for financing conversations during peak spring home shopping months.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
FED DECISION, INFLATION SIGNALS, HOUSING DATA…Markets will focus on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and producer inflation data for guidance on rate policy direction. Housing starts and builder sentiment reports will also provide insight into supply trends entering the spring season. Stable labor conditions and moderating inflation remain key influences on mortgage rate movement. Continued economic resilience could support buyer confidence and help sustain improving purchase demand in coming weeks.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Markets currently expect policymakers to hold rates steady while monitoring inflation progress and global risks. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.9% probability of change is a 99.1% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 18th = 3.50%-3.75%
Apr 29th = 3.50%-3.75%
Jun 17th = 3.50%-3.75%
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Mar 18th = 0.9%
Apr 29th = 3.0%
Jun 17th = 23.0%
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
If you want to see more growth in your business, set your goals beyond your comfort zone—the amount of business you’re reasonably sure you can close. Giving yourself uncomfortably higher goals creates the momentum that drives growth.
The market is moving fast, but your strategy shouldn’t be a reaction—it should be a plan.
If you’re looking to navigate these inventory shifts or want to see how the upcoming Fed decision affects your buying power, let’s talk.
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