Spring Housing Momentum May Be Starting to Build

Inside Lending – Week of March 9, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Success usually comes to those who are too busy to be looking for it.” — Henry David Thoreau, American philosopher

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Housing data is beginning to hint at a potential spring rebound. Home values rose in February for the first time in several months, while existing home sales also posted a modest year-over-year gain, suggesting market confidence may be improving.

Inventory trends continue shifting conditions toward buyers. Active listings are higher than a year ago, while homes are spending more time on the market and prices are moderating. These changes are helping restore balance after several years of tight supply.

Builder activity remains an important piece of the housing supply outlook. Recent residential construction data shows housing starts and building permits holding at steady levels, suggesting builders continue working to add supply as demand gradually improves.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

PULLBACK… Markets moved lower during the week as investors reassessed economic data and inflation expectations while positioning ahead of upcoming labor market reports.

Some volatility emerged as traders weighed global developments and the path of interest rates, leading to broader declines across major equity indexes.

Mortgage rates remained near the lowest levels seen in several years despite fluctuations in Treasury yields, helping maintain improved affordability conditions for buyers entering the spring market.

The week ended with the Dow down 3.0%, to 47,502; the S&P 500 down 2.0%, to 6,740; and the Nasdaq down 1.2%, to 22,388.

Bond markets saw some volatility but ultimately finished near prior levels. Early pressure from rising oil prices pushed yields higher, but a weaker-than-expected jobs report later in the week helped bonds recover, allowing mortgage rates to end the week relatively steady.

DID YOU KNOW…Lower mortgage rates over the past year have increased buying power by roughly $30,000 for the median-income household, according to Zillow housing data.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

CPI, INFLATION DATA, AND GLOBAL HEADLINES…Markets will focus on this week’s CPI report for signs that inflation continues to moderate. The data comes after a weaker labor market report last week, increasing attention on the economy’s overall momentum. Investors will also watch Middle East developments and energy prices, as higher oil costs can push inflation expectations higher. These factors could influence bond markets and mortgage rate direction as the spring housing season approaches.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Futures markets continue to indicate that policymakers are likely to hold rates steady at the March meeting, while expectations for potential easing later in the year remain mixed as markets evaluate inflation data and economic growth signals. Note: In the lower chart, the 2.7% probability of change is a 97.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: ONSENSUS

Mar 183.50%-3.75%

Apr 293.50%-3.75%

Jun 173.50%-3.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS

Mar 182.7%

Apr 2912.7%

Jun 1739.3%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

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Markets like this reward preparation.

Inventory is improving, buying power has increased, and early spring activity is beginning to build. That combination can create opportunities for buyers and homeowners who have a clear plan.

A Mortgage Strategy Call is designed to help you step back and look at the full picture.

During the call we can: • Review how current rates affect your buying power • Evaluate timing options based on your goals • Explore refinance or equity strategies if you already own a home

If you want clarity around your next move, this is a good time to have that conversation.

Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call and build a plan before the spring market fully heats up.