Rates Down, Inventory Up—Buyers Regain Leverage
Inside Lending – Week of November 3, 2025
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Most of what we call management consists of making it difficult for people to get their work done.”—Peter Drucker, Austrian American management consultant
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
September’s Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes was unchanged for the month, and down just a smidge year-over-year. Inventory hit a five-year high, giving buyers more options and room to negotiate.
Mortgage demand rebounded last week, as applications for purchase mortgages were 4% higher for the week, and 20% higher than a year ago, with more borrowers opting for fixed-rate loans.
Home price increases continue to slow. August’s S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index was up just 1.5%, the weakest annual gain in over two years. These slowing price increases are improving the potential for greater affordability for buyers.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
WINNING MONTH… The three major indexes notched weekly and monthly wins, as traders sent stocks northward, buoyed by a quarter point Fed rate cut, a U.S.-China trade deal, and better-than-expected Q3 corporate earnings.
Fed chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish in his presser, warning us that we shouldn’t take a rate cut in December for granted, but the futures market still booked a better than 60% chance we’ll get one.
The Consumer Confidence Index didn’t show much change in October, but there wasn’t a lot more economic data, courtesy of the government shutdown. Instead, traders rallied around the booming investment in AI.
The week ended with the Dow UP 0.8%, to 47,563; the S&P 500 UP 0.7%, to 6,840; and the Nasdaq UP 2.2%, to 23,725.
Bonds headed in the other direction, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% down 56 basis points, to 99.17. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased for the fourth consecutive week in Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW… According to a national online real estate database, during the four weeks ending October 26, median monthly housing payments saw their sharpest drop in almost a year, falling 1.4% annually.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, SERVICES, MANUFACTURING, JOBS… There are no forecasts for the September Construction Spending or October Employment reports, as they’re expected to be delayed by the government shutdown. But we will get MBA Mortgage Applications to check on current buyer activity. And the October ISM Manufacturing index should show that sector slightly in contraction, while ISM Services reveals the dominant sector of the economy is still expanding.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Despite the Fed chair’s post-meeting comments last week, the futures market still sees another quarter percent rate cut in December, but a hold after that. Note: In the lower chart, the 69.2% probability of change means there’s only a 30.8% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%.
💡 No Excuse Pro Tip (Business Tip of the Week)
The best professionals never stop learning. 📚 Every book, podcast, mastermind, or seminar you engage with expands your perspective and increases the value you bring to your clients. Growth isn’t optional—it’s your competitive advantage.
Bottom Line
With mortgage rates dropping and home prices stabilizing, the window for buyers is opening wide. Now is the perfect time to create a Mortgage Strategy Plan that positions you ahead of the next market shift.
📲 Call or Text: 480-553-8770 📩 kevin@kevinbrierton.com 🔗 Schedule Your Mortgage Strategy Call
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