Inventory Up, Prices Steady—A More Balanced Market Emerging

Inside Lending – Week of November 24, 2025

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Never fight an inanimate object.”—P. J. O’Rourke, American author and journalist

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

Sales of existing homes scored a modest gain in October, reaching an eight-month high. Buyers are seeing more options—inventory is up almost 11% the past year—while the median price rose just 2%.

Spending on residential construction in August came in ahead of July, but a little below where it was a year ago. It was good to see the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index edge up in November.

A national real estate database reports the number of homesellers in October exceeded the number of buyers by almost 37%, a record, and the largest difference between the two groups since at least 2013.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

CHOPPY… It was a turbulent week on Wall Street, as traders took profits and feared the Fed was done with rate cuts this year. Then the tide turned Friday, but not enough to avoid all three major indexes posting losses for the week.

What ignited the rally were comments from the New York Fed President that he still sees room for a further rate cut “in the near term.” This was encouraging enough to offset a low-ish read for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

September saw modest growth in payrolls and a mere uptick in the unemployment rate, supporting the low hiring, low firing labor market story that’s giving the Fed more reason to shave rates in December.

The week ended with the Dow down 1.9%, to 46,245; the S&P 500 also down 1.9%, to 6,603 and the Nasdaq down 2.7%, to 22,273.

Bonds edged ahead overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% UP 1 basis point, to 99.09. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate showed little movement last week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… New data on virtual tours: the most-viewed room isn’t the kitchen, it’s the bathroom; buyers decide if they like a home after just 8 photos; only 10% of visitors take a 3D tour, but those who do, spend an impressive 2-5 minutes on it!

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, RETAIL SALES, INFLATION… The October Pending Home Sales measure of signed contracts on existing homes is predicted to stay flat. Economists expect both the September Case-Shiller and FHFA indexes to report home prices rising at a slower pace. Retail Sales should keep gaining in September. There are no forecasts for October New Home Sales and PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

U.S. financial markets will be closed Thursday, November 27, for Thanksgiving Day. The day after Thanksgiving, or Black Friday, November 28, stock markets will close early at 1 p.m., bond markets at 2 p.m.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The futures market now sees another rate cut in a few weeks, then no moves at the start of next year. Note: In the lower chart, the 69.4% probability of change means there’s only a 30.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%

💡 No Excuse Pro Tip (Business Tip of the Week)

Anything you do more than once should become a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). SOPs create consistency, save time, and make your business scalable. The pros don’t reinvent the wheel—they document it, refine it, and repeat it.

The market is shifting toward balance—and that creates opportunity. If you’re considering buying, selling, or refinancing, now is the perfect time to build your Mortgage Strategy Plan while rates remain near their lows.

📲 Call or Text: 480-553-8770 📩 kevin@kevinbrierton.com 🔗 Schedule Your Mortgage Strategy Call

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