Buyers Are Back, Sellers Are Listing—But Strategy Matters More Than Ever

Inside Lending – Week of January 26, 2026

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Is it ignorance or apathy? Hey, I don’t know and I don’t care.”—Jimmy Buffett, American singer-songwriter, author, and businessman

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

The year is off to a great start. For the week ending January 16, applications for purchase mortgages were 12% higher than the week before and 18% ahead of where they were the same week ago.

Freddie Mac notes there are also more sellers: “With the economy improving and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nearly a percentage point lower than last year, more homeowners are entering the market.”

After November’s multiyear high, Pending Home Sales fell more than 9% in December, leaving the index of signed contracts on existing homes 3.0% down for 2025. But December inventory was at the lowest level of the year.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

ANOTHER SLIP… The three big stock indexes ended the holiday-shortened week with another decline, as geopolitical headlines overcame positive economic news. Nonetheless, the stock market remains near record levels.

But the rhetoric eased around Greenland-related tariffs, as we got largely stable inflation data. Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, was at 2.8% year-over-year for November, unchanged from September.

Personal Income is up 4.3% the past year, while Personal Spending rose 5.4%. And the Final Q3 GDP read showed the economy growing at an upwardly revised 4.4% rate, the fastest quarterly pace in two years.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.5%, to 49,099; the S&P 500 down 0.4%, to 6,916, and the Nasdaq down 0.1%, to 23,501.

Bond prices also took a hit, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% falling 123 basis points, to 99.27. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained at the lowest level in more than three years in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.  Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… It’s considered a buyer’s market when there are 10% more home sellers than buyers. Nationally, December saw around 47% more sellers than buyers, the largest gap since 2013, while prices were up a scant 0.1%.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

HOME PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, THE FED… Both the Case-Shiller and the FHFA indexes are expected to report home price growth continued to slow in November. With the economy back in strong growth mode and gas prices receding, Consumer Confidence is forecast to continue trending upward. It’s no surprise that economists predict the Fed’s FOMC Decision will be no rate cut for now.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Virtually no one on Wall Street expects the Fed to make a move on rates this week, and sentiment is low for any cuts at the following two meets. Note: In the lower chart, the 2.8% probability of change means there’s a 97.2% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Don’t compare your success to anyone else’s. It makes no sense—we all have different experience, talents, and skills. Instead, focus on your own performance. Are you doing better than yesterday? Are you hitting your goals? That’s what counts.

The market is sending mixed signals, and that’s exactly when a clear plan makes the biggest difference.

If you’re considering a move in 2026, now is the time to step back and look at the full picture—not just rates, but affordability, inventory, timing, and long-term impact.

Schedule a Mortgage Strategy Call and we’ll:

• Break down how current market conditions affect your buying power
• Map out smart options based on your goals, not headlines
• Build a plan so you’re ready to act when the opportunity fits

📅 Click here to Schedule your mortgage strategy call and move forward with clarity and confidence