The Housing Market Is Shifting Again—But Not How You Think
Inside Lending – Week of March 30, 2026
nside Lending – Week of March 30, 2026
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Success usually comes to those who are too busy to be looking for it.”—Henry David Thoreau, Essayist, poet, and philosopher
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Inventory gains and declining home prices continue to create more favorable conditions for buyers this spring. While mortgage rates have edged higher, they remain below last year’s levels, helping support affordability compared to recent seasons.
New listings continue to fluctuate, suggesting some sellers are waiting for clearer rate direction. Even so, overall inventory remains higher than a year ago, giving buyers more options and improving overall market balance.
Affordability challenges remain a key theme across the market, with a growing gap between buyers and sellers and most markets still above historical affordability norms. This dynamic continues to shape demand as the spring season unfolds.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
HEADLINE DRIVEN MARKETS…Stocks moved lower for the week as ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continued to drive market volatility. Investors remained focused on inflation risks and the potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.
Bond yields held near recent highs as markets priced in continued pressure from energy-driven inflation. Shifting expectations around interest rates and global developments kept trading conditions uneven throughout the week.
Despite volatility, the broader economy remains resilient. Consumer fundamentals are stable, labor markets continue to hold, and housing activity is showing gradual improvement supported by rising inventory and softening prices.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.9%, to 45,167, the S&P 500 down 2.1%, to 6,369, and the Nasdaq down 3.2%, to 20,948.
Bond markets remained under modest pressure as inflation concerns tied to higher energy prices persisted. Mortgage rates stayed slightly elevated but within a recent range, reflecting ongoing uncertainty balanced by steady economic conditions.
DID YOU KNOW…Homes have now posted more than 20 consecutive weeks of year-over-year price declines, a trend that is gradually improving affordability and helping bring more buyers back into the market.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
JOBS DATA, PMI, INFLATION SIGNALS…Markets will focus on upcoming labor market data and Purchasing Managers’ Index reports for insight into economic momentum. These reports will help shape expectations for growth and inflation trends moving forward. The Federal Reserve remains in a data dependent stance, with labor stability and inflation direction continuing to guide policy. Signs of cooling inflation or steady employment could help stabilize mortgage rates and support spring homebuying demand.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Markets currently expect policymakers to hold rates steady while monitoring inflation progress and global risks. Officials are also expected to maintain a data dependent approach as they evaluate the timing of potential future easing. Note: In the lower chart, the 4.7% probability of change means there’s a 95.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Apr 29th = 3.50%-3.75%
Jun 17th = 3.50%-3.75%
Jun 29th = 3.50%-3.75%
Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Apr 29th = 4.7%
Jun 17th = 6.7%
Jun 29th = 11.4%
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
If you want to see more growth in your business, set your goals beyond your comfort zone—the amount of business you’re reasonably sure you can close. Giving yourself uncomfortably higher goals creates the momentum that drives growth.
The market is shifting—and that creates opportunity if you have the right strategy.
Whether you’re thinking about buying, refinancing, or simply want to understand how today’s market impacts your long-term plan, now is a great time to get clear on your next move.
A Mortgage Strategy Call is where we break it down together—your buying power, timing, rate strategy, and how to position yourself in this changing market.
No pressure. Just a clear plan.
👉 Schedule your Mortgage Strategy Call here: https://www.kevinbrierton.com/call
Let’s make sure your next move is intentional, not reactive.
