2026 Opens With More Inventory, Lower Payments, and Opportunity
Inside lending For the week of JANUARY 12, 2026
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
““There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.”—Josh Billings, 19th century American humorist and lecturer
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Single-family Housing Starts were up 5.4% in October to their highest level since July, with completions up 6%. Starts did decline overall, but that was all due to the drop in multifamily projects.
Homebuyers in general are far better off than a year ago. With active listings up 12.1%, they get more choices; the median listing price is 0.6% lower; and monthly mortgage payments are down 4.7%—at the lowest level in two years.
Real estate analytics firm Cotality reports home prices declined on a monthly basis in November for the fifth straight month, sliding 0.1% from October, and are now just 1% higher than they were a year ago.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
HAPPY NEW YEAR!… It took until the first full trading week of the New Year for Wall Street to celebrate, but the fireworks finally went off big time, as the three major indexes all posted impressive, broad-based gains.
It all came down to traders leaning into growth, with increasing confidence in a firm economic backdrop. Business activity in the dominant services sector of the economy accelerated in December to its best level of the year.
The December jobs report could have been better, but 4.4% unemployment hardly indicates a weak labor market. Plus, Productivity was up and Unit Labor Costs down in Q3, pointing to strong economic growth without inflation.
The week ended with the Dow UP 2.3%, to 49,504; the S&P 500 UP 1.6%, to 6,966, and the Nasdaq UP 1.9%, to 23,671.
The bond market joined the rally, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% spiking UP 74 basis points, to 100.03. In Freddie Mac’s survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the first week of the year was the lowest in four years. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
Trump’s $200B MBS Announcement – What It Really Means for Rates
DID YOU KNOW… Fewer sellers are holding back from listing because they have a super low mortgage rate. A national mortgage database shows there are now more homeowners with a mortgage rate that’s 6% and higher than those with a rate that’s 3% and lower.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, INFLATION, RETAIL SALES… We’ll get the delayed New Home Sales reports, and September’s is expected to show a pullback in activity, but there’s no forecast for October. Economists predict inflation will continue to moderate by the December Consumer Price Index (CPI). November Retail Sales should post a bump, as consumers continue to boost the economy.
All U.S. financial markets will be closed next Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. With signs of a strengthening economy, the futures market now sees the Fed keeping the rate where it is for the next three meetings. Note: In the lower chart, the 5.0% probability of change means there’s a 95.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
Think of fear as your green light. Nervous about that pitch? Just do it. Afraid to post that video? Go ahead and post it. Begin each week by doing one thing you’ve been avoiding. Just remember—what’s on the other side of fear is growth!
Thinking about buying, selling, refinancing, or planning your next move? The market is shifting, and the right mortgage strategy matters more than ever. Let’s take a few minutes to review your options, your timing, and how today’s numbers impact your goals.
👉 Schedule a Mortgage Strategy Call and get clear, personalized guidance so you can move forward with confidence and no excuses.
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