Inside lending – For the week of JUNE 9, 2025

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is.”—Yogi Berra, American professional baseball player, manager, and coach

NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

In May, the total number of listings topped 1 million homes for the first time since before the pandemic, while in April, the total value of homes for sale surged to a record $698 billion, up 20.3% from last year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey reported that mortgage applications “continue to exhibit annual gains, with purchase applications running 18% ahead of last year’s pace.”

Overall spending on residential construction in April came in a smidge below the revised March estimate, but spending on single-families, though also off a bit for the month, were only 2.2% lower than a year ago.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

GOOD JOBS, GREAT MARKETS… The S&P 500 soared to 6,000 in the wake of a better-than-expected May jobs report, along with the news the President’s top trade reps will meet with the Chinese in London today.

As usual, all was not upbeat, as the May ISM Manufacturing Index stayed in contraction territory, joined by the ISM Services Index, indicating a slowing economy. But the April trade deficit plunged to $61.6 billion.

And May saw 139,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, stayed in the lowest 10% of readings back to 1948. Plus, higher hourly earnings growth should keep consumers spending and the economy growing.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.2%, to 42,763; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 6,000; and the Nasdaq UP 2.2%, to 19.530.

Bonds overall dipped a smidge, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% went UP 0.74, to 99.01. In Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased—“welcome news to potential homebuyers who also are seeing inventory improve and house price growth slow.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW… A new survey revealed a growing number of millennials are planning to buy a home—and soon. In April, 23% of millennial respondents said they intend to buy in the next six months, up from 15% last September.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, INFLATION, CONSUMER SENTIMENT… We’ll check the MBA Mortgage Applications Index to see whether purchase applications keep coming in ahead of last year. Economists expect inflation to continue to moderate in May, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). They’re also forecasting that the preliminary June read for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will head northward, a welcome sign for the economy.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The strength of the labor market in May left futures traders expecting the Fed will not make their first rate cut until the fall. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.1% probability of change is a 99.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Give yourself positive inputs every day and maintain a vision of the best version of yourself—what you and your clients deserve. Confidence, resilience, and an unwavering belief in your value should be non-negotiable.

Kevin Brierton Branch Manager Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist NMLS# 599873

6991 East Camelback Rd., Ste D-300 Scottsdale, AZ 85251

Call or Text: 480-553-8770 kevin@kevinbrierton.com www.kevinbrierton.com

The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Kevin Brierton Team at Luminate Bank and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Kevin Brierton Team at Luminate Bank.